US soldier indicted for betting on Maduro capture via Polymarket

A U.S. special forces soldier has been indicted by the U.S. Justice Department for allegedly using classified information to place bets on Polymarket, a prediction market (a platform where users bet on the outcome of future events). The soldier, Gannon Ken Van Dyke, was arrested on Thursday. His alleged crime? Making numerous bets on the prediction market Polymarket that Maduro would be removed from power. Federal officials say that Van Dyke’s wagers were informed by classified information he had access to as a result of being a government insider, specifically regarding the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.

Authorities claim Van Dyke was involved in the planning and execution of Operation Absolute Resolve, the military operation involving the capture of the Venezuelan leader. According to federal officials, Van Dyke signed nondisclosure agreements prohibiting him from revealing classified or sensitive information related to his military operations. Despite this, in December, Van Dyke created a Polymarket account and began making wagers involving Maduro- and Venezuela-related markets. Between December 27, 2025 and January 26 of this year, he allegedly made 13 bets totaling some $33,034 on outcomes related to U.S. forces in Venezuela and Maduro being out of power by January 31, 2026. These bets allegedly resulted in winnings of upwards of $400,000. Officials say that, after collecting his winnings, Van Dyke also took steps to cover up his ties to the account that made the wagers.

Van Dyke faces a variety of charges, including violating the Commodity Exchange Act, wire fraud, and making an unlawful monetary transaction. The Commodity Exchange Act is a U.S. federal law governing commodity futures and options trading. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche emphasized the gravity of the situation, stating, “Our men and women in uniform are trusted with classified information in order to accomplish their mission as safely and effectively as possible, and are prohibited from using this highly sensitive information for personal financial gain.” Blanche noted that while widespread access to prediction markets is a relatively new phenomenon, federal laws protecting national security information fully apply.

Why it matters

The indictment highlights the intersection of classified military information and the growing influence of prediction markets, with federal officials emphasizing that laws protecting national security information apply to these platforms.